The authors have tried to spell out everything that has been said of Elliott that is worthwhile saying. Tlle book wouldn't be here, however, without the help of several people whom we will always remember with gratitude. Anthony Boeckh of Bank Credit Analyst fame gener-ously opened his files. Jo-Anne Drew labored hours over the first draft and lent her artistic talents to its production. Robert R.
|Published (Last):||8 April 2004|
|PDF File Size:||20.47 Mb|
|ePub File Size:||18.83 Mb|
|Price:||Free* [*Free Regsitration Required]|
The authors have tried to spell out everything that has been said of Elliott that is worthwhile saying. Tlle book wouldn't be here, however, without the help of several people whom we will always remember with gratitude. Anthony Boeckh of Bank Credit Analyst fame gener-ously opened his files. Jo-Anne Drew labored hours over the first draft and lent her artistic talents to its production.
Robert R. Prechter, Sr. Arthur Merrill of Merrill Analysis, Inc. Others too numerous to mention have sustained us in our efforts with ad-vice and encouragement. To all, please accept our thanks. Background charts for some of the illustrations were provided courtesy of the following sources: Bank Credit Analyst, Montreal, Canada Figures 2- 11, , ;R.
Figures ; ,9,10,12; ; Securities Research Co. Figure includes illustrations courtesy of Fascinating Fibonaccis by Trudi H. All illustrations not otherwise cited were done by Bob Prechter original book and Dave Allman appendices. The formidable job of lettering and paste-up was patiently performed by Robin Machcinski. Thejacket design was conceived by the authors and crafted by graphics artist Irene Goldberg of New Orleans, Louisiana.
The authors have tried to acknowledge all source material used in this book. Any omissions are accidental and will be corrected in future printings if brought to our attention. The Supercycle Wave from Grand Supercycle Wave from 1 7 8 9 to Present. Appendix: Long Term Forecast Update, Publisher's Postscript. Some two thousand years ago a man voiced a few words whose truth has rung down through the centuries:. One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh, but the earth abideth forever.
The sun also ariseth, and the sun goeth down, and hasteth to his place where he arose. The wind goeth toward the south,' and turneth about unto the north; it whirleth about continually, and the wind returneth again according to his circuits.
All the rivers r u n into the sea; yet the sea is not full; unto the flow from whence the rivers come, thither. The thing that hath been, it is that which. A corollary of this profundity is that human nature does not change, nor does its pattern. Four men in our generation have built their reputations in the economic field on this truth: Arthur Pigou, Charles H. Hundreds of theories have been advanced concerning the ups. Pigou, the English economist, reduced it to the human equation. The upward and downward swings of business, Pigou said, are caused by excesses of human optimism followed by excesses ofpessimism.
The pendulum swings too far one way and there is glut; it swings too far the other way and there is scarcity. An excess in one direction breeds an excess in the other, and so on and so on, diastole and systole in never-ending succession. Charles H.
Dow, one ofAmerica's most profound students of stock market movements,noted a certain repetition in the market's continuing gyrations. Out of this seeming confusion Dow observed. Dow enunciated two principles that have stood the test of time. His first was that the market in its primary uptrend was characterized by three upward swings. The first swing he attributed to a rebound from the price over-pessimism of the preceding primary downswing; the second upward swing geared into the improving business and earnings picture; the third and last swing was a price overdiscounting of value.
D O G ' S s e c o n d principle was that at some point in every market swing, whether up or. While Dow may not knowingly have tied these laws into the influence of the human factor, the market is made by man and continuity or repetition, noted by Dow, necessarily derives from that source. Baiuch, a multimillionaire through stock market operation and adviser to American presidents, hit the nail on the head in just-a few words.
In short, how millions of individual men and women feel these happenings may affect their future. It is people trying to read the future. Elliott, who at the time he evolved his theory had probably never heard of Pigou. Elliott had been working down in Mexico but due to a physical malady - I think he said it was anemia - had graduated to a rocking chair on a front porch in California.
With time on his hands, as he endea- vored to throw off his difficulty, Elliott tuned to a study of the stock market as reflected by the history and movement of the Dow Jones averages. Out of this protracted study Elliott dis- covered the same repetitious phenomena so eloquently expressed, asquoted in the opening paragraphs of this introduction, by the Preacher ofEcclesiastes.
Elliott, in developing his theory through observation, study alid thought, incorporated what Dow had. Both men had sensed the involutions of the human equation that dominated market movements but Dow painted with broad strokes of the brush and Elliott in detail, with greater breadth. I met Elliott through correspondence. I was publishing a national weekly stock market bulletin to which Elliott wished to join his efforts.
Letters back and forth followed but the matter was triggered in the first quarter of On that occasion the. Investors, economists, and stock market analysts had not recovered from the unpleasantness and this early breakdown was most discon- certing. Was the nation in for more trouble? On the last day of the rail list decline I received a telegram from Elliott stating most emphatically that the decline was over, that it was only the first setback in a bull market that had much further to go.
Ensuing months proved Elliott so right that I asked him to be my house guest in Michigan over a weekend. Elliott accepted and went over his theory in detail. I could not take him into my organization, however, since he insisted that all decisions be based on his theory.
I did help him to locate in Wall Street and in appreciation of his disclosure to me of his work, wrote and put his theory into a booklet entitled The Wave Principle under his name. Subsequently, I introduced Elliott to Financial World maga- zine for whom I had contributed and he, through a series of articles, covered the essentials of his theory therein. Therein he introduced the magic of Fibonacci and certain esoteric propositions that he believed confirmed his own views.
Frost and Robert R. Prechter, Jr. Charles J. Collins Grosse Pointe, Michigan, Ellzott Wave Princzple came out in November , with the Dow at Neverthe- less, due to the spiraling interest in the book's content and the success of its long range forecast, it has sold more copies every year, achieving the status of a Wall Street classic. Like the Wave Principle itself, this book has stood the test of time. What's more, Elliott Wave Principle has gotten better as it has evolved. The book fulfills its purpose as a comprehensive text more satisfactorily with each new edition, as Robert Prechter has meticulously refined, enhanced and expanded it through the years.
This effort has borne fruit. In the s, A. Frost had often recounted Hamilton Bolton's observation in the s that "For every people who know Dow Theory, only one has ever even heard of Elliott. Some such systems undergo "punctuated growth," that is, periods of growth alternating with phases of non-growth or decline, building into similar patterns of increasing size.
Nature is replete with such "fractals," and as we demonstrated in this book twenty years ago, and as R. Elliott revealed some sixty years ago, the stock market is no exception. It is hard to believe that twenty years have gone by since we introduced the world to Frost and Prechter's vision of a great bull market in stocks.
While its extent has been much more than they originally expected, the authors maintain their labeling of the advance as Cycle wave V. Today, the market's character is exactly as Prechter said it would be in his depiction of fifteen years ago: "At wave Vs end, investor mass psychology should , reach manic proportions, with elements of , and all operating together and, at the end, to an even greater ex- treme. This edition again keeps intact every word involving expec- tations for the future precisely as it originally appeared, allowing new readers to investigate both the successes and errors in the forecast presented by Frost and Prechter those many years ago.
In referring to that forecast, investment analyst James W. Cowan says, "Even allowing for minor stumbles, that prediction mustgo down as the most remarkable stock marketprediction of all tzme. The authors, to be sure, stick by their scenario. New Classics Library, Publisher. In coauthoring this book, we have not been unmindful of the little girl who, after reading a book about penguins, said, "This book has told me more about penguins than I really care to know.
When presented clearly, the basic tenets of the Wave Principle are easy to learn and apply. Unfortunately, the early works on the subject are now out of print, and the scattered nature of the writings since then has created problems since there has been no definitive reference text available for study. In this book, we have tried to produce a work that gives a complete treatment of the subject in a manner which we hope will succeed in introducing both experienced analysts and interested laymen to the fascinating field of Elliott.
We trust our readers will be encouraged t o do their own research by keeping a chart of hourly fluctuations of the Dow until they can say with enthusiasm, " I see it! It will not be the answer to all your problems, but it will give you perspective and at the same time enable you to appreciate the strange psychology of human behavior, especially market behavior. Elliott's concepts reflect a principle you can readily prove to yourself and evermore see the stock market in a new light.
PL AS we have adgd through some of the post dnpredi6t-. In the s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discove? The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily. He named, defined and! He then described how they link together to form.
Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior - PDF eBooks Free ...
Robert Prechter was the young man's name, and he used a method called the " Elliott. Wave Principle. Frost was one of the few other financial professionals who. In a distinguished year career, Frost had likewise made.
ISBN 13: 9780471988496